MIDDLESEX V SURREY at Lord's (Royal London One-Day Cup), 2 AUGUST 2016

Given Surrey's net run rate advantage, the equation is simple - a victory over Middlesex and one of Essex, Kent and Hampshire losing will put the Oval outfit into the last eight of the Royal London One-Day Cup. But don't be surprised if there are more than one or two twists and turns as tomorrow evening's events unfold.

The good news is that Tuesday's weather forecast is far more encouraging than tonight's - which, alas, proved to be spot on. The bad news is Kent and Essex are up against opponents who have nothing to play for. So, the other contest Surrey fans need to keep an eye on is the Hampshire-Somerset clash.

Middlesex are not to be under-estimated, even without the likes of Eoin Morgan and Brendon McCullum on hand. That said, the groin injury currently sidelining Dawid Malan is a blow to the North Londoners, who may risk bringing in Nick Compton for his first one-day appearance of the season to shore up the batting - not least because George Bailey (who is standing in for Adam Voges as overseas player) is only averaging 5.33 with the willow in this summer's Royal London. John Simpson (19.00) and skipper James Franklin have also disappointed.

On the plus side, however, Paul Stirling has hit 335 runs at an average of 55.83 (including hundreds against Gloucestershire and Kent) and the bowlers have been extremely effective at keeping Middlesex competitive. Toby Roland-Jones (12 wickets at 15.58 runs apiece) and Franklin (11 at 21.18) have been the pick of their attack, while Ollie Rayner has generally kept things quiet.

Jade Dernbach is just single wicket away from 200 one-day career victims with the ball.

The naming of Zafar Ansari in Surrey's 14-man squad suggests the 24-year-old all-rounder is close to overcoming the back problem he picked up in the championship game away to Hampshire. However, the word is, Ansari will still need to come through an eleventh hour fitness test if he is to start the final Royal London group clash.

Of Surrey's last 12 one-day visits to Lord's (to have reached a positive outcome one way or the other), the side batting last has won 10 of them. As you may recall, Gareth Batty blamed Surrey's defeat in last season's Royal London final on his decision to bowl first. But, in fact, the weight of history was very much on his side. The key to this clash will be Surrey's bowling line-up against Middlesex's batting. If the visitors can snare Stirling early, I would back them to prevail. Question is, what will happen in the other three games in the South Group?

P.Stirling, S.Robson, N.Gubbins, G.Bailey, J.Simpson (wk), J.Franklin (capt), R.Higgins, T.Roland-Jones, O.Rayner, T.Murtagh and J.Harris.

Rob Bailey and Nick Cook. (3rd umpire - David Millns).

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