Surrey's last four championship visits to Derby have produced positive outcomes, but the Bank Holiday weather forecast suggests it will be difficult squeezing a result out of this contest. Like Surrey, Derbyshire have just a solitary championship victory to show for their efforts to date, but the Oval outfit have the edge by dint of one loss to their hosts' two.

Wayne Madsen (504 championship runs at an average of 45.81) has led the way with the bat for Derbyshire this summer, abetted by all-rounder Greg Smith and Australia's Usman Khawaja, who now makes way for New Zealand's Martin Guptill. Chesney Hughes, Wes Durston and Dan Redfern have made a number of decent starts without kicking on, but skipper Luke Sutton has only hit one half-century and the tail is yet to properly wag.

Tony Palladino and Tim Groenewald have been the pick of Derbyshire's attack, which is just as well with Steffan Jones sidelined by injury. Palladino, who moved up from Essex over the winter, is averaging 21.80 in the championship, but Groenewald is their leading wicket-taker with 24 scalps at 24.91 runs apiece. Greg Smith has bowled steadily at first change, but, like so many counties, Derbyshire do not appear to have much of a spin threat. Indeed, they wouldn't have one at all were it not for 20-year-old Azeem Rafiq, who has come on loan from Yorkshire.

If fit, Steven Davies will make his 100th first-class appearance. Chris Jordan goes into this contest with 49 f-c wickets, while Tim Linley has 47. Of the opposition's ranks, Martin Guptill is set to make his Derbyshire debut.

Steven Davies should play despite carrying an ankle injury, sustained before play began on day three against Glamorgan at the Oval, but Rory Burns is in the Surrey squad for Derby as cover. International duty rules out Kevin Pietersen, Chris Tremlett and Gary Wilson. Hamstring injuries have put paid to Yasir Arafat and Stuart Meaker's chances of returning to the fold. 

Often, when it comes to this bit, I look to the heavens; not for divine inspiration, but to see what the weather's doing. With rain forecast for days two and four, and both teams having trouble bowling sides out twice, there's only one outcome - a draw.

W Madsen, C Hughes, M Guptill, D Redfern, W Durston, G Smith, L Sutton (capt, wk), J Clare, Azeem Rafiq, T Groenewald and A Palladino.

Michael Gough and Trevor Jesty.

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