ESSEX V SURREY at Colchester (LVCC2), 7-10 AUGUST 2015

It's often the case that Surrey venture to Essex more in hope than expectation. Since 1969, just three 29 championship visits away to Essex have produced a Surrey win. Of the other 26, twelve have ended in defeat for the Oval outfit.

But there's good news. Essex will be without four first-team regulars. Ryan ten Doeschate sustained a blow on his knee during Wednesday’s RLODC game with Middlesex; Graham Napier has a calf strain; Jesse Ryder is suffering with a back problem and David Masters is struggling with a niggle.

Ryder's absence is a massive loss. In the four championship matches Essex have won this season, the 30-year-old New Zealander has averaged 45.75 with the bat and 14.75 with the ball.

When Surrey last travelled to Colchester to take on Essex in the championship, in 2009, Ravi Bopara hit a double century and the hosts romped to victory by an innings. However, Bopara, who is said to be reviewing his options for next season, is currently averaging a paltry 19.15 in the County Championship. If he remains out of sorts, much will depend on Tom Westley (571 runs at an average of 47.58) and Nick Browne (772 at 38.60).

Without Ryder and Napier the bowling looks threadbare. Other than 22-year-old seamer Jamie Porter (37 championship wickets at 25.02 runs apiece), Ravi Bopara is the only other bowler likely to start with more than ten wickets this summer.

Tom Curran has 47 championship wickets in 2015. Essex's Jamie Porter will start with 49 first-class career wickets.

With Ben Foakes ruled out following a car accident and Kumar Sangakkara on international duty, Anessh Kapil and Dominic Sibley are named in the South Londoners' 13-man squad, as is Jade Dernbach, who looks set to make his first championship appearance since the corresponding fixture at the Oval at the end of April.

It's surprising how many Surrey-Essex championship contests have ended in draws in recent years. True, the weather has played its part, but it means Surrey have tasted victory in just one of their last eight four-day clashes with Essex. The weather is set fair on this occasion, which suggests a positive result. So, with Essex much changed with injuries, I've got to say a win for Surrey.

N Browne, J Mickleburgh, T Westley, R Bopara, M Pettini, K Velani, J Foster (capt, wk), A Nijjar, J Porter, M Salisbury and R Patel.

Jeff Evans and Steve Gale.

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