MIDDLESEX V SURREY at Lord's (LVCC2), 30 JUNE - 3 JULY 2009

Although Surrey's recent championship visits to Lord's have not ended in success for the Brown Caps they have managed first innings totals of 400-plus in each of their last five four-day matches in NW8; in addition to enjoying first innings leads on all five of those occasions. Given the make-up of Surrey's attack for this fixture - Jade Dernbach is sidelined and Harbhajan Singh has not arrived (as everyone seemed to be predicting a month ago) - they might need all the runs they can get.

That said, even though Middlesex are still without Tim Murtagh, it will not be easy. Steve Finn (17 championship victims at 31.82 runs apiece) has been picking up wickets regularly, David Burton's first championship appearance since the end of 2006 - at Bristol a fortnight ago - went well for the 23-year-old seamer and in Shaun Udal and Murali Kartik the North Londoners have one of the best spin duos in the country.

On a positive note, Middlesex, on paper at least, look short of runs with no Phil Hughes, Eoin Morgan - who is on England Lions duty - and of course no Andrew Strauss. That just leaves one batsman - Owais Shah - averaging over 32 in this season's LV County Championship. David Nash keeps his place behind the timbers despite making just 77 runs in four championship innings this term and the much-vaunted Billy Godleman, who averages 13.00, is also struggling for batting form.     

Mark Butcher has never made a hundred against Middlesex. His only centuries at Lord's were for England - against Sri Lanka in 2002 and Zimbabwe in 2003. Mark Ramprakash's f-c career run tally against his former employers currently stands at 873 (average 97.00). If he plays, Alex Tudor, who has been recalled to the Surrey squad, will go into this contest with 347 first-class wickets. For the home side, Dawid Malan has 906 f-c career runs, while Chris Silverwood has 2,998.

Jade Dernbach is out with a shin injury and Stuart Meaker has been dropped, so Chris Jordan is the only survivor from the youthful seam attack that bowled Leicestershire out for 165 on the opening day at Grace Road a fortnight ago. So, with Andre Nel fit again (from what was believed to be a stiff back) and one of Tudor and Collins filling the other spare seamers' spot it is almost a case of out with the new and in with the old. The Brown Caps are thought likely to go with two spinners again. Chris Schofield and Murtaza Hussain are the probable starters, but Simon King has been placed on standby just in case. If he does play, though, it will be his first-class debut.   

Given Middlesex's spin threat, the home side will be hoping for a real bunsen. But although it is not unknown for spin to have a decisive say in a championship match at Lord's - like when Worcestershire won there last year and when the North Londoners trounced Glamorgan by an innings in August 2007 - positive results have been hard to come by at the home of cricket. If Andre Nel is firing on all cylinders again - like at Northampton - Surrey will win. If he isn't, expect this one to end in a draw.

N Compton, B Godleman, O Shah, N Dexter, D Malan, D Nash (wk), S Udal (capt), M Kartik, C Silverwood, S Finn and D Burton.

Mark Benson and Barry Dudleston. See also The Dreaded Finger

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