Five games into the championship campaign and it's already hard to believe that Essex and Surrey were widely tipped for promotion before a ball had been bowled. That said, Surrey got back to winning ways a fortnight ago with an overwhelming display against bottom of the table Leicestershire. But Essex are only sixth to Surrey's seventh thanks to a final day, 217-run fourth wicket partnership between Ravi Bopara and Matt Walker against Glamorgan at the end of April.

The good news for Surrey is that Bopara misses this match because he is on England Lions duty, as is the Ovalites' Jade Dernbach. Essex are also without Reece Topley, who is studying for his exams, in addition to Owais Shah and Ryan ten Doeschate, who are participating in the Indian Premier League. The bad news is that the visitors still have England's Ashes hero, Alastair opening the innings. The 26-year-old left-hander will be keen to make amends for his 4 and 25 in last week's draw at Derby; where, once again, Bopara led the way with the bat for the Chelmsford-based outfit.

Even though is seems an ideal time to be playing Essex, Mark Pettini and Matt Walker both have decent records, with the bat, against the South Londoners. But their leading bowler in the championship this summer, David Masters (24 wickets at 20.58 runs apiece) has only taken 14 first-class wickets at an average of 57.35 in nine appearances against Surrey.

Mark Ramprakash needs just 33 more runs for 35,000 in first-class cricket; while, for Essex, Mark Pettini has 4,888 and Adam Wheater has 884. It's also worth noting that if Ramprakash makes a hundred he will go level fifteenth in the all-time list of first-class century-makers, alongside Sir Vivian Richards.

As has already been said, Jade Dernbach is only England Lions duty. He looks set to be replaced by Tim Linley. In the batting, Kevin Pietersen comes in for Jason Roy, which seems harsh on Roy, given that his 76 in the second innings against Leicestershire set-up victory inside three days. With Roy dropping out, Tom Maynard joins the growing queue of makeshift Surrey openers.

The weather forecast for the next four days could be better, but they are saying it will remain dry. So, in short, expect a result. Surrey's last championship victory at Whitgift School was against the same opponents, albeit five years ago, and now seems an ideal time to be playing Essex. Verdict - Surrey win.

A Cook, J Mickleburgh, M Pettini, M Walker, A Wheater, J Foster (capt/wk), G Napier, T Phillips, D Masters, C Wright and M Chambers.

Richard Kettleborough and Graham Lloyd.

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