One of Surrey's many failings in recent years, in the championship, has been poor starts with the bat. Essex, in their opening game of the season, were skittled out for just 94 by Derbyshire. However, Alistair Cook's 181 in the second innings at Chelmsford turned the contest on its head and the hosts ran out winners by 53 runs. Surrey, by contrast, saved their horror show for late on, against Glamorgan. After being blown away for 81, their all-pace attack was made to look popgun as the Welshmen cantered home - knocking off the target of 153 without offering up even a whiff of a chance. In short, Essex go into tomorrow as the hot favourites, provided the weather in London remains dry and sunny.

With Ryan ten Doeschate (Kolkata Knight Riders) on IPL duty and Reece Topley nursing a bad back, Essex's bowling options look a tad limited. David Masters (51 championship wickets at 22.80 runs apiece in 2013) and Graham Napier (48 scalps at an average of 31.58 last term) provide the dependability while slow left-armer Monty Panesar and speedster Tymal Mills, both of whom struggled with the ball last summer, constitute the solid support.

The batting is Essex's strongest suit. Cook needs no introduction, nor does Ravi Bopara, who, on his day, can take apart any attack in the country. Napier always seems to do well against Surrey, whether it's with the bat or the ball. The fact that he comes into bat below Greg Smith and skipper James Foster speaks for itself. But, above all, tomorrow's visitors will be hoping 24-year-old opener, Jaik Mickleburgh, who made 829 championship runs at an average of 41.45 last summer, continues going from strength to strength.

Essex's Graham Napier heads into this match with 349 f-c wickets to his name.

Surrey have made one change to the side that lost to Glamorgan - Jade Dernbach replaces Tim Linley. Meanwhile, Vikram Solanki remains out of the picture, after being granted indefinite leave for family reasons, and a certain Kevin Pietersen is participating in the Indian Premier League.

According to the weather forecasters, we'll be looking to the heavens over the next four days - not for inspiration, but for signs of blue. They're predicting we'll lose at least a day and a half, out of the four, to rain. Coincidentally, they said that two weeks ago and we're pretty much spot on. I, however, said draw on that occasion and got it as badly wrong as Surrey's batsmen did in the second dig. But I'm sticking to my guns. This one will be a draw.

J Mickleburgh, A Cook, T Westley, R Bopara, G Smith, B Foakes, J Foster (capt, wk), G Napier, D Masters, M Panesar and T Mills.

Jeremy Lloyds and Peter Willey.

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