SURREY V HAMPSHIRE at the Brit Oval (LVCC1), 25-28 APRIL 2007

Surrey may not know what it is to lose in the County Championship to Hampshire, who are the ante-post favourites for this year's crown. The last time the Brown Caps copped a bloody nose off them was back in August 1994, but this will be the first time Shane Warne has skippered his adopted county against Surrey, whose confidence was severely dented by last week's heavy defeat to the previously unfancied Yorkshire.

The visitors have added Michael Brown to the side that convincingly beat Middlesex in the Friends Provident Trophy. However, Michael Carberry (knee), Sean Ervine (shin), Dimitri Mascarenhas (heel) and Chris Tremlett (back) are all likely to be sidelined. Consequently, 24-year-old left-arm seamer James Tomlinson, of whom big things are expected, comes in; as does the experienced and much underrated medium-pacer Billy Taylor.

But, for wickets, the visitors will be relying on James Bruce, who averaged 29.18 with the ball last term and Warne, who bowled more overs than any other Hampshire bowler in 2006 and was their leading wicket-taker with 58 victims at 27.08 runs apiece and four five-wicket-plus hauls. But as impressive as it was, Warne's record wasn't in the same league as Mushtaq Ahmed's feats for title winners Sussex. Furthermore, despite enjoying a victorious Ashes series against England, the 37-year-old leg-spinner took just 10 Pura Cup wickets at an average of 41.70 for Victoria during the winter.

With the bat, all of Hampshire's top order either got runs in the warm-up match against Cardiff UCCE or in last Sunday's victory over Middlesex. But it should not be forgotten that in 2006 they relied far too heavily on just three men - John Crawley (1737 runs at an average of 66.80), Nic Pothas and Jimmy Adams in the championship.

Of those players likely to be on show, Azhar Mahmood, with 494, is approaching 500 first-class wickets. Steve Magoffin needs three more scalps for 100 career f-c wickets. In terms of his Surrey career, Jimmy Ormond has now taken 197 first-class wickets. Finally, of the visitors, 26-year-old all-rounder Greg Lamb is three runs away from 1,000 in f-c cricket. 

Surrey captain Mark Butcher returns from a groin strain to make his season's championship debut. However, Ian Salisbury (arm) will have to pass a late fitness test before being risked, while Rikki Clarke, stand-in captain last week, is definitely out with a toe injury. Finally, Mohammad Akram is named in the Surrey squad and is likely to be pressed into action following his good showing with the ball in Sunday's FP Trophy win over the Kent Spitfires.

The weather projections have improved from what the forecasters were saying a few days ago, so, with a result on the cards, I don't have the get out of sitting on the fence on this one. The return of Mark Butcher will, I believe, make a big difference for Surrey, but if Shane Warne takes eight or more wickets in the match it is difficult to envisage anything but a Hampshire victory.   

N Pothas (wk), C Benham, M Lumb, J Crawley, J Adams, G Lamb, S Warne (capt), S Udal, J Bruce, J Tomlinson and B Taylor.

Graham Burgess and Vanburn Holder.

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