SURREY V KENT at the Brit Oval (LVCC1), 29 JUNE - 2 JULY 2008

With a seam-friendly wicket likely to greet Surrey when they travel to Trent Bridge and a draw being a nailed-on certainty at Guildford, the outcome in this match could set the tone for the rest of the Brown Caps' season. Looking at the recent history of Surrey v Kent contests in the championship, it is encouraging to note that the Oval outfit have won their last three clashes in the capital against the hop county. Since then, however, the Spitfires have had the better of things.

Other than Azhar Mahmood and Martin van Jaarsveld, the Kent batsmen have been even shorter for runs in this year's County Championship than Surrey's have. Matt Walker has made a particularly poor start to the 2008 campaign and an average of 8.80 is unlikely to win him a place in the visitors' line-up tomorrow. Were it not for his 149 against Somerset at Tunbridge Wells, Joe Denly would definitely be a yet another example of second season under-achievement.

With the ball, however, Kent have had a great deal more to write home about than the Brown Caps this term. Ryan McLaren has taken 26 wickets at an average of 17.00 (what Surrey would give for a seamer who has taken 17 wickets at 26.00!). With Robbie Joseph having collected 17 wickets at 24.41 runs apiece and Yasir Arafat 14 at 31.71, the only real concern for the hop county has been the fact that James Tredwell's victims have cost an average of 66.16.    

Jonathan Batty needs 9 dismissals for 500 first-class dismissals. Ali Brown needs 68 runs for 15,000 career f-c runs. In case anyone has forgotten, Mark Ramprakash needs one more century for 100 f-c hundreds. Chris Schofield needs 5 more wickets for 200 in first-class cricket.

Despite his last four championship knocks being 33, 0, 0 and 6, Alistair Brown is likely to benefit from Mark Butcher's absence with a knee injury, which it is thought could keep the Surrey skipper sidelined until well into August. Chris Jordan and Jimmy Ormond are available, but with the hosts likely to field two spinners, Jordan and Ormond could lose out to Jade Dernbach, who took a career best 6-72 in the Brown Caps' most recent championship match against Somerset at Whitgift. 

Rain is forecast for day four, but if the batters are still in Twenty20 mode three days might just be enough to get a decisive result on what is likely to be another Oval shirtfront. The loss of Mark Butcher is a massive blow and if Kent's seamers are able to get more out of the wicket than their counterparts, the visitors would seem, to me at least, to be in better shape. So, even though it pains me, I have to admit to fancying Kent's chances.

R Key (capt), J Denly, M van Jaarsveld, D Stevens, J Kemp, G Jones (wk), Azhar Mahmood, J Tredwell, R McLaren, Yasir Arafat and R Joseph.

Rob Bailey and Jeff Evans.

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