SURREY V KENT at the Brit Oval (LVCC2), 10-13 JULY 2009

Surrey have now gone five championship matches without losing. Furthermore, their lowest first innings total during the same period is 329. Either these are signs that the Brown Caps have turned the corner or they due to struggle again. With last week's 76-run victory over Gloucestershire, Kent slotted into second place in Division Two with a game in hand on the leaders; which, to be honest, was where everyone expected the Spitfires to be with ten matches to go. In short, Surrey face a challenging four days and may secretly be hoping that the indifferent weather forecast for the weekend proves to be accurate.

As if a seam attack that reads Khan, McLaren and Parnell isn't enough to raise doubts in the minds of Surrey's batsmen, Simon Cook picked up his second five-wicket championship haul in the space of three games last week when his 5-22 reduced Gloucestershire from 134-4 to 166 all out in their first innings at Beckenham. But this year Kent's leading wicket-taker has been off-spinner James Tredwell, who has so far picked up 25 championship victims at 20.48 runs apiece, including best figures of 8-66 against Glamorgan at Canterbury, at the beginning of May.

Kent have also been formidable with the bat. Marin van Jaarsveld (640 championship runs at an average of 71.11) has hit three hundreds, while Joe Denly and Geraint Jones have bit struck two. Only skipper Rob Key has struggled. He has scored just 106 runs at 15.14, but his record at the Oval is pretty good and those who witnessed the 199 he made against Surrey five years ago will know that Key is a sleeping giant.

Alex Tudor goes into this contest with 348 first-class wickets to his name. On the other side of the scorecard, Simon Cook needs one more wicket for 100 f-c wickets for Kent, while Geraint Jones starts with 4,861 f-c career runs.

Two changes to the eleven that drew with Middlesex last week are anticipated - Jade Dernbach (shin) and Chris Schofield (finger) are said to be fit again. They will replace Andre Nel (hamstring) and Simon King. Pedro Collins acts as standby.

Maybe it's the recession, but I am in a very negative frame of mind at the moment. So, it'll come as no surprise to learn that I can only see one team winning this match and it isn't Surrey.

J Denly, R Key (capt), G Jones (wk), M van Jaarsveld, D Stevens, J Kemp, W Parnell, J Tredwell, R McLaren, S Cook and A Khan.

Rob Bailey and John Steele. See also The Dreaded Finger

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