Surrey's chances of remaining in Division One were dealt a huge blow at Durham last week. With a couple of wins now needed from four outings, the signs are less than promising given that tomorrow's weather forecast is predicting a 70% chance of rain and Middlesex, their opponents, have only lost to Surrey once in 14 championship matches.

Aside from Joe Denly (720 championship runs at an average of 45.00) and Chris Rogers (773 @ 40.68), Middlesex have been short of runs this summer. Despite heading the table for most first-class dismissals by a wicketkeeper in 2012, John Simpson has had such a lean time with the bat, Middlesex have decided to replace the 24-year-old with Adam Rossington, 19.

Thankfully, the North Londoners have been better served by their bowling attack, which continues to be led by ex-Surrey seamer Tim Murtagh (46 championship wickets at 23.30 runs apiece), whose number one status in the Middlesex camp is being threatened by Toby Roland-Jones (36 scalps @ 20.97, including a career best 6-66 against Sussex at the weekend). With spin likely to be a factor, Tom Smith has been named in the visitors' 13-man squad, but there's no Ollie Rayner, who has an injured left hand.

Gareth Batty, with 98, is just two wickets short of one hundred first-class wickets for Surrey, while Arun Harinath needs nine more runs for one thousand f-c runs as a Surrey player. On the Middlesex side, Tim Murtagh, with 48, is two wickets away from fifty first-class for the season.

Whether he has declined to play, or the ECB have barred him from playing, the bottom line is that Surrey cannot call on Kevin Pietersen's services. To help address their batting frailties, Rory Hamilton-Brown has been named in the Ovalites' championship squad for the first time since that fateful match at Horsham in June. Also in the 13-man squad are Zander de Bruyn, who has made twenty or more just three times in 17 innings in all competitions, and Chris Jordan, who has taken 10 wickets at an average cost of 51.70 in seven championship outings.

Providing the weather stays away I can see this match becoming a battle of spin. On paper, Surrey would appear to hold the upper hand in that regard, but should Middlesex win the toss and bat first this has the makings of a fascinating contest. The visitors' top order has lacked confidence at times, but they have played on a number of surfaces not conducive to batting. The Oval should offer them some relief, at least initially. Whichever side establishes a first innings lead will prevail. Let's hope that's Surrey. 

C Rogers (capt), S Robson, J Denly, D Malan, N Dexter, A Balbirnie, A Rossington (wk), G Berg, T Smith, T Roland-Jones and T Murtagh.

Nigel Cowley and Nigel Llong.

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