SURREY V WARWICKSHIRE at the Brit Oval (LVCC1), 9-12 MAY 2007

With the weather forecast to condemn this match to a draw, at last there is some respite in store for the Brown Caps, who, almost unbelievably, are now 22-1 on www.betfair.com to win the County Championship. That's three points shorter than prior to their debacle at Old Trafford! Surrey's opponents, Warwickshire, who currently top the Division One table, are 4-1 bets for the title; hence my relief that rain is thought likely to play a part on each of the first three days.

At the last Members Liaison Group meeting, I complained that the fixture list did the Brown Caps' championship challenge no favours. I was right, but not for the reasons I first thought. I was concerned that Surrey were disadvantaged by having so many home games early in the schedule. The reality is that their first four opponents have turned out to be the four main title challengers.

Sussex, who are now fifth in the betting, are up next for the South Londoners. Before a ball was bowled this season, many had the Sharks down as their champo picks. Their judgement looked justified when Sussex trounced Kent first up, but then they ran into Warwickshire, who have now won their last two by an innings.

Thus far, the only weak link in the Bears' attack has been 23-year-old all-rounder Tim Groenewald. Dale Steyn, Naqqash Tahir and James Anyon are all into double-figures in terms of championship wickets. Now that Heath Streak is back in the side, after deciding to relinquish the captaincy, everything is on the up and up in the bowling department.

Warwickshire's batting has a few questions marks against it, though. Despite the excellent starts that Tim Ambrose and Jim Troughton have enjoyed, Darren Maddy, Jonathan Trott and Ian Westwood are still to record a sizeable innings in four-day cricket. That could change, however, with competition in the shape of Ian Bell and Kumar Sangakkara looming just around the corner. Bell is available for this match, but the clever money is on him coming in for Groenewald rather than one of the faltering batters.

The approaching milestones, which could be realised in this match are as follows: All First-class: Azhar Mahmood 494 wickets, Alistair 44 hundreds, Mark Butcher 34 hundreds, Rikki Clarke 99 wickets, Darren Maddy 19 hundreds, Mohammad Akram 940 runs, Mark Ramprakash 28,923 runs & 89 hundreds and Heath Streak 492 wickets. First-class for Warwickshire: Tim Ambrose 847 runs, Neil Carter 144 wickets and Heath Streak 97 wickets.

Overseas signing Matt Nicholson is poised to take his place in the Surrey line-up, with Jimmy Ormond making way. Azhar Mahmood is still nursing a sore back, but Ian Salisbury has rejoined the injury list with a troublesome Achilles tendon strain. Nayan Doshi and Chris Schofield have therefore been placed on standby.   

Even though Warwickshire have recently shown, against Sussex and Worcestershire, that they just need to bat once to win, the weather forecast looks like it will dominate proceedings. So, my advice would be - back the draw.

I Westwood, D Maddy (capt), I Bell, J Trott, J Troughton, A Loudon, T Ambrose (wk), H Streak, D Steyn, N Tahir and J Anyon.

Jeff Evans and Barrie Leadbeater

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