FOR ENHANCED COVERAGE OF THE WORLD CUP GO TO OVAL WORLD'S SECTION 

MARCUS HOOK RUNS THE RULE OVER THE LEADING CONTENDERS...

AUSTRALIA

Australia have lost six of their last ten ODIs, putting them in the same company as Pakistan and Sri Lanka; both of whom are not fancied by the odds-setters. The absence of Brett Lee, who is sidelined with an ankle injury, could undermine the Aussies' chances of completing a World Cup treble. In recent times when they have needed to break a partnership in one-day cricket, Steve Waugh or Ricky Ponting have thrown the ball to Lee, who has duly obliged. Glenn McGrath's accuracy can be relied upon to keep opposition batsmen honest, but if Mitchell Johnson or Shaun Tait leak runs at the other end it could be to little avail. A question-mark also hangs over Brad Hogg's credentials as first choice spinner. Had it not been for his 2/28, which sparked a collapse in the warm-up match against England, the slow left-armer would have gone seven matches without a wicket for Australia. Looking on the positive side the Aussies possess an unrivalled batting line-up. Ponting is widely regarded as being the best batsman in the world right now. On his day, Adam Gilchrist can be totally destructive. Added to that, Mike Hussey and Andrew Symonds are as consistent as they come and Matthew Hayden has opened 2007 by making 606 ODI runs at an average of 55. If that's not enough, Shane Watson is coming into some form, having struck two half-centuries in the warm-up matches. Prediction: Nailed on to reach the last four and will probably win it.

BANGLADESH

Had the Tigers been put in Group C or D, then I could easily foresee one of the top eight seeds failing to progress to the second phase of the competition. But Bangladesh will have a job elbowing their way past India and Sri Lanka in Group B. With the bat, they will rely on Saqibul Hasan and opener Shahriar Nafees to keep the scoreboard ticking over and Aftab Ahmed to supply the fireworks. But the Tigers perform best when their bowling attack is on song, as was the case against New Zealand and Scotland in their two warm-up games. Left-arm spinner Abdur Razzak and the fast-medium Mashrafe Mortaza have been potent weapons of late, while Mohammad Rafique - at 36, the veteran of a squad whose average age is 25 - and Syed Rasel have shown some consistency. Bangladesh's main weakness, other than experience of beating the big boys (they have only ever won four ODIs against the top eight seeds), is the lack of a wicketkeeper and a lower order capable of contributing with the bat. Prediction: The Tigers will not allow India and Sri Lanka have things all their own way, but I don't see much riding on their third Group B contest against Bermuda on March 25.

ENGLAND

England reached the last four in each of the first five World Cups, but they are still to win the tournament. In recent times the best they have managed was their quarter-final berth in 1996. Cue the D:Ream song Things Can Only Get Better. But as luck would have it, things have just taken a turn for the better. England's unexpected victory over Australia in the final of the Commonwealth Bank tri-series, which also involved New Zealand, just might give them the confidence they typically lack in one-day cricket. However, there are too many question-marks against them, all of which Scyld Berry highlighted so succinctly in yesterday's Sunday Telegraph. Such is England's captaincy crisis, Duncan Fletcher has chosen to gamble on the fitness of Michael Vaughan, who has made just three ODI appearances since the beginning of last year. Key man Kevin Pietersen, who broke one of his ribs recently when he charged down the wicket to Glenn McGrath, has vowed to curb is attacking instincts when and where the situation demands. But, that said, he has also stated that he wants to express himself during this World Cup; which sounds somewhat contradictory. Ian Bell and Paul Collingwood are capable of doing a job with the bat, but if the run-getting is left to those two then James Anderson, Andrew Flintoff, Monty Panesar and Liam Plunkett are unlikely to be in a position to exert any real pressure with the ball. Prediction: Set to prop-up the Super Eight table.

INDIA

For the last month I have been telling anyone prepared to listen that if Australia don't win this year's World Cup, India will. I have even put a fiver on them at 10-1, which probably means they are now destined to fall at the first fence. It's partly a case of my head ruling my heart, since India have the biggest contingent of Surrey representatives in Anil Kumble and Harbhajan Singh. Putting sentiments to one side, there cannot be a more potent spin duo in world cricket right now, which, if the pitches in the Caribbean favour spin, could give Rahul Dravid's men an advantage over everyone else. On top of that they boast a very handy seam attack, which is likely to comprise of Ajit Agarkar, Zaheer Khan, Munaf Patel and Irfan Pathan. The batting is less rounded, but with the likes of Sachin Tendulkar, Dravid, Yuvraj Singh and hard-hitting wicketkeeper-batsman Mahendra Dhoni around, it is more likely than not that India will have enough runs to play with. The case against them going all the way can be built around the fact that, for all their experience, India's squad is ageing, which is likely to affect their ground fielding. Added to this is the controversial inclusion, at Dravid's insistence, of Virender Sehwag, who has not scored a century now for 59 ODIs and who has not made twenty or more in 13 of his last 17 ODI innings. Prediction: Reaching the semi-finals should not be the limit of their capabilities.

NEW ZEALAND

Even though New Zealand are ranked fourth in the world in one-day cricket going into the tournament, few pundits have them down to reach a fifth semi-final. On their day Stephen Fleming's men are capable of beating anyone or, for that matter, losing to anyone (as they did in their warm-up match with Bangladesh). Unable to put a run of results together, the Super Eight phase is likely to disadvantage them. But, having talked them down, New Zealand are on a high after completing a 3-0 whitewash over a weakened Australia in the recent Chappell-Hadlee series. Fleming's form could be better, but Lou Vincent has stepped into the vacancy created by Nathan Astle's shock retirement at the end of last year. Craig McMillan can be rather Jekyll and Hyde, but he cannot have had many finer moments than when he and wicketkeeper Brendon McCullum put on 165 for the sixth wicket to set-up victory over the Aussies in Hamilton. Given Shane Bond's injury record, the Kiwis must surely be mightily relieved that the World Cup has coincided with a fully fit Bond. Bond has a handy new-ball ally in left-armer James Franklin, but, for me, the key man in all three departments, due to his knack of being able to chip in with runs, wickets and catches at vital times, is Jacob Oram. Prediction: If New Zealand are going to do anything in this World Cup, a victory over England to kick their tournament off is absolutely crucial.

PAKISTAN

If Pakistan fail to live up to their undoubted potential, they already have a ready made excuse - injuries. But the reality is that Abdul Razzaq is not the all-rounder he was and, following their bans for positive drug tests (which were unilaterally overturned by the Pakistan Cricket Board), the presence of Mohammad Asif and Shoaib Akhtar would almost certainly have drawn unwelcome speculation. Without them, however, Pakistan's attack lacks bite. Only two bowlers on show in this World Cup have bagged four wickets in a ODI innings since the beginning of 2005 - Rana Naved-ul-Hasan and Shahid Afridi. With Afridi having to sit out the first two games, Shoaib Malik prone to being expensive and the likes of Danish Kaneria having played very little one-day cricket of late, the key man could be Umar Gul, who has overcome his shin injury. The onus, therefore, will be on the batsmen to post defendable totals. Mohammad Yousuf would be in most people's World XI, skipper Inzamam-ul-Haq averages 58 in ODIs in the West Indies and, when he comes off, Afridi can be impossible to bowl to. But looking down their line-up it is fair to say that Younis Khan is scratching around for form and Malik does not score his runs quickly enough. Prediction: Nailed on certainties to make the Super Eights, but, thereafter, Pakistan's lack of batting depth is likely to their undoing. That said they did register a morale-boosting win over South Africa in the warm-up matches.

SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa are the form side, having won eight of their last ten ODIs. The Proteas have now participated in four tournaments prior to this one, but, to the surprise of many, they are yet to reach a final. Graeme Smith's men will be as keen to put that right as they will be to shrug off their reputation for folding under pressure. Having looked good in both 1999 and 2003, they exited each tournament in embarrassing circumstances. South Africa's number one ranking going into this World Cup can be traced back to their momentous win over the Aussies in March 2006. That one wicket win in Johannesburg, when they successfully overhauled Australia's 434 for four, clinched a 3-2 series win that restored confidence after a disappointing tour down under. The form men with the bat are Jacques Kallis, A.B. de Villiers, wicketkeeper Mark Boucher and Smith, so if Herschelle Gibbs can come to the party in the Caribbean the Proteas will take a lot of catching. With the ball, Shaun Pollock is arguably the best in the world in one-day cricket at this precise moment in time. All-rounders Kallis and Andrew Hall are also up there and few batsmen get the better of Makhaya Ntini in any form of the game. Prediction: It's about time South Africa got to a final, but once there will they manage to hold their nerve? The showdown against Australia in St.Kitts on March 24 might tell us a great deal.

SRI LANKA

Other than winning in 1996 and reaching the semi-finals four years ago, Sri Lanka's World Cup record is nothing to write home about. In this tournmament, as in others, much will rest on the shoulders of Muttiah Muralitharan with the ball. Chaminda Vaas seems to have lost a yard or two of pace while Lasith Malinga, who is express, is expensive on occasions. Of all the main contenders, Sri Lanka must surely can have gained precious little from their warm-up matches, other than the knowledge that Upul Tharanga is over his recent run of poor form with the bat. Someone who is not, however, is skipper Mahela Jayawardene, who scored 8 and 2 having made just 46 runs in his last seven ODI innings. One saving grace is the presence of Chamara Silva, whose international recall looks long overdue with every game, but there is not a great deal to come below him in the order. If his side are to prosper much hinges on what sort of World Cup is had by all-rounder Tillekeratne Dilshan. In 2005 he claimed 15 wickets at 23 runs apiece, whilst conceding just 4.39 per over. If Dilshan could produce similar results, it would then allow Sri Lanka to play an extra batsman. Prediction: Just a bit lacking with bat and ball. However, Sri Lanka's schedule should allow them to ease themselves into the tournament and if they do build up some momentum it will be interesting to see how they fair in the Super Eights.

WEST INDIES

As history has shown, being the home nation counts for very little. Only Sri Lanka, in 1996, won the World Cup when it was held in their backyard. Even then, just a handful of the matches in the initial phase were contested on the island. But some observers are saying that, as with the Australians in 1987, this could be the tournament to reawaken a sleeping giant. Compared with the main protagonists, the West Indies are well off for all-rounders. They do not come that much better than Chris Gayle and Dwayne Bravo, plus if a best newcomer award was up for grabs, the (as yet) untested 19-year-old all-rounder Kieron Pollard could be the man to burst onto the scene during this World Cup. The bowling line-up is completed by Ian Bradshaw and the equally impressive Jerome Taylor, with Daren Powell and Dwayne Smith making up the supporting cast. Brian Lara's lack of ODI form with the bat in the last couple of years must be a worry to the home fans, but Shivnarine Chanderpaul is at the top of his game right now. If the likes of Marlon Samuels and Ramnaresh Sarwan can turn potential into delivery, who knows… Prediction: If they can build up some momentum going into the semi-finals by beating India and then England (assuming all of the seeded teams progress to the last eight), the West Indies might just be the surprise package.

ZIMBABWE

The decline in Zimbabwe's cricketing fortunes has mirrored the increasingly stricken political and economic situation back home. Temporarily suspended from Test cricket, the Zimbas have recently had to be content with one-day international cricket. But of their last sixteen ODIs, they have tasted victory in just one - last month in Harare against Bangladesh. Vusumuzi Sibanda leads the way with the bat, but all around him there is no real consistency. The bowling attack appears to be in better shape thanks to the exploits of Tawanda Mupariwa and Christopher Mpofu. However, the cynical step taken by the Zimbabwean authorities of forcing all of their players to sign non-negotiable two-year contracts on the eve of the tournament represents a new low. One finds it difficult to believe that such a move will inspire Kevin Curran's band of young charges - only Brent, Dabengwa and Duffin are older than twenty-four - to get as far as the Super Eights let alone the knockout phase. Prediction: Would it be a surprise if they lost to Ireland as well as Pakistan and the West Indies? I don't think so. But if they do come away from the World Cup empty handed what possible justification would there be to re-admit Zimbabwe to the Test arena?

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